Origin Energy (ORG) H2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory profit rose to AUD 1.574 billion for FY26, up from AUD 1.481 billion in FY25, with underlying profit at AUD 1.159 billion, reflecting strong Energy Markets and cash generation despite lower Integrated Gas earnings.

• Underlying EBITDA was AUD 3.22 billion, down from AUD 3.411 billion in FY25, with gains in Energy Markets and Octopus Energy offset by declines in Integrated Gas.

• Adjusted free cash flow surged to AUD 2.074 billion, up AUD 867 million year-over-year, driven by Energy Markets and APLNG.

• Customer accounts grew by 243,000 in Retail and 2.2 million in Octopus Energy, with significant progress in battery storage and digital platforms.

• Achieved AUD 100–150 million cost-out target, completed legal separation of Octopus and Kraken, and Kraken raised AUD 1 billion in equity at an AUD 8.65 billion valuation.

Financial highlights

• Energy Markets EBITDA rose to AUD 1.7 billion, near the upper end of guidance; Integrated Gas EBITDA was AUD 1.62 billion, in line with expectations.

• Octopus/Kraken EBITDA was minus AUD 8 million, with UK Retail contributing AUD 134 million.

• Adjusted net debt to EBITDA improved to 1.6x, below the 2x–3x target range.

• Final dividend of AUD 0.30 per share, totaling AUD 0.60 for the year, fully franked and stable from FY25.

• Adjusted free cash flow exceeded AUD 2 billion, up over AUD 700 million year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• FY27 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance: AUD 1.55–1.85 billion; CapEx expected at AUD 450–650 million as battery build completes.

• APLNG production guidance for FY27 is 625–670 PJ, with CapEx and OpEx between AUD 3–3.3 billion.

• Kraken revenue expected to grow over 20% in FY27; UK Retail EBITDA per customer guided at GBP 25–50.

• Moderation in electricity gross profit expected in FY28 as lower forward prices flow into tariffs.