Origin Energy (ORG) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory profit for FY24 was $1,397 million, up from $1,055 million in FY23, reflecting strong operational and financial performance driven by Energy Markets and Integrated Gas earnings uplift.

• Underlying profit rose to $1,183 million, $436 million higher year-over-year, with underlying EBITDA increasing to $3,528 million from $3,107 million.

• Increased shareholder distributions, with a fully franked final dividend of 27.5 cents per share, totaling 55 cents for FY24, a 73% payout of adjusted free cash flow.

• Advanced energy transition strategy, including major investments in renewables, storage, hydrogen projects, and customer support initiatives.

• Agreed with NSW Government to extend Eraring operations to 2027, supporting energy reliability and emissions targets.

Financial highlights

• Statutory profit rose to $1,397 million (from $1,055 million in FY23); underlying profit increased to $1,183 million (from $747 million in FY23).

• Underlying EBITDA reached $3,528 million, with Energy Markets EBITDA up $617 million to $1,655 million and Integrated Gas EBITDA up $32 million to $1,951 million.

• Adjusted Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.0x, below target range, reflecting strong cash flows and reduced debt.

• Free cash flow up $506 million to $928 million; cash distributions from APLNG totaled $1,384 million.

• Final dividend of 27.5cps, fully franked, for a total FY24 dividend of 55cps.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 Energy Markets underlying EBITDA expected between $1,100–$1,400 million, reflecting lower wholesale tariffs and higher coal costs.

• Octopus Energy FY25 EBITDA contribution projected at $100–$200 million, benefiting from lower REGO prices and customer growth.

• Integrated Gas: APLNG FY25 production guidance 685–710 PJ, with LNG trading EBITDA expected at $400–$450 million.

• Cost to serve expected to modestly improve in FY25, with further $100–$150 million reduction targeted by FY26.

• Electricity gross profit forecast to decrease in FY25 due to lower wholesale costs, reduced retail margins, and higher coal procurement costs.