Origin Energy (ORG) H1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory profit for HY25 was $1,017 million, up from $995 million year-over-year; underlying profit rose 24% to $924 million, driven by Integrated Gas and lower tax expense.

• Underlying EBITDA was $1,926 million, down from $1,995 million, reflecting lower Energy Markets and Octopus Energy earnings.

• APLNG earnings increased 14% due to higher realized prices and sales volumes; LNG trading delivered $285 million in EBITDA, up 270% year-over-year.

• Octopus UK retail and Kraken platform saw strong growth, offset by increased investment in Energy Services, resulting in a $24 million EBITDA loss.

• Interim dividend increased to 30 cps, fully franked, up from 27.5 cps in HY24, reflecting strong cash generation and balance sheet.

Financial highlights

• Revenue increased to $8,771 million from $7,996 million year-over-year.

• Adjusted net debt/EBITDA at 1.5x, up from 1.0x at June 2024, below the 2–3x target.

• Free cash flow was a net outflow of $552 million, reflecting battery investment; adjusted free cash flow rose to $518 million.

• Received $612 million in fully franked dividends from APLNG; APLNG JV had $3.2 billion operating cash flow after tax.

• Interim dividend of 30cps fully franked, up 2.5cps year-over-year; dividend yield at 5.4%.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 Energy Markets underlying EBITDA guidance unchanged at $1,100–$1,400 million.

• LNG trading EBITDA expected at upper end of $400–$450 million for FY25; FY26 guidance $50–$150 million.

• Octopus Energy FY25 EBITDA contribution revised to up to $100 million, reflecting continued investment in Energy Services.

• APLNG FY25 production guidance revised to 670–690 PJ due to field underperformance and unplanned outages.

• FY25 capex forecast at $1.5–$1.7 billion, with $950 million–$1.3 billion for battery projects.