Origin Energy (ORG) H1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory profit rose to $1,017 million, up 2% year-over-year, and underlying profit increased 24% to $924 million, driven by Integrated Gas and lower tax expense.

• Energy Markets earnings declined as expected, while APLNG earnings increased 14% due to higher prices and sales volumes.

• LNG trading delivered underlying EBITDA of $285 million, up 270% year-over-year, trending toward the upper end of guidance.

• Octopus UK retail saw strong growth, but overall earnings were offset by investment in scaling Energy Services; Kraken platform approaches 100 million accounts.

• Interim dividend increased to 30 cps, fully franked, up from 27.5 cps, reflecting strong cash flows and balance sheet.

Financial highlights

• Underlying EBITDA was $1,926 million, down from $1,995 million year-over-year; revenue increased to $8,771 million.

• Adjusted net debt/EBITDA rose to 1.5x from 1.0x at June 2024, with adjusted net debt at $4.0 billion.

• Free cash flow was negative $552 million, but adjusted free cash flow rose to $518 million despite higher capex and tax payments.

• CapEx increased, mainly due to large-scale battery investments; $1.7 billion committed to battery projects.

• APLNG paid $612 million in fully franked dividends, with strong JV operating cash flow of $3.2 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 Energy Markets underlying EBITDA expected at $1.1–1.4 billion, unchanged, with lower electricity and gas gross profit due to wholesale price declines and higher coal costs.

• LNG trading EBITDA guidance raised to $400–450 million for FY25, with a sharp drop expected in FY26.

• Octopus Energy FY25 EBITDA contribution revised to up to $100 million, reflecting continued investment in Energy Services.

• APLNG FY25 production guidance revised to 670–690 PJ due to field underperformance and unplanned outages.

• FY25 capex forecast at $1.5–1.7 billion, with $950 million for battery projects.