Origin Energy (ORG) H1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory profit for HY26 was $557 million, down from $1,017 million in HY25; underlying profit was $593 million, down from $924 million, and underlying EBITDA fell to $1,589 million from $1,926 million, mainly due to lower Integrated Gas and Octopus Energy earnings.

• Energy Markets EBITDA rose to $860 million, exceeding expectations due to strong operational performance, higher electricity gross profit, and cost reductions.

• Octopus Energy reported an EBITDA loss of $89 million, reflecting seasonality, regulatory costs, and ongoing investment in customer growth.

• Customer accounts increased by 96,000, with growth across electricity, gas, and internet segments.

• Interim dividend of 30 cents per share, fully franked, maintained, supported by strong cash flow and a net debt to adjusted underlying EBITDA of 2x.

Financial highlights

• Underlying EBITDA: $1,589 million; statutory profit: $557 million; underlying profit: $593 million.

• Adjusted free cash flow increased to $705 million from $518 million in HY25.

• Adjusted net debt/EBITDA at 2.0x, at the bottom of the 2–3x target range.

• Dividend yield at 5.3% before franking benefits.

• Revenue for HY26 was $7,993 million, down from $8,771 million in HY25.

Outlook and guidance

• FY26 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance raised to $1,550–$1,750 million, up from $1,400–$1,700 million, reflecting improved electricity performance.

• Group CapEx expected between $900 million and $1,100 million, mainly for battery projects and Eraring battery expansion.

• APLNG production guidance updated to 645–680 PJ; cash distributions to Origin expected between $700–950 million.

• Octopus Energy EBITDA guidance for FY26 is $0–$150 million, with continued investment in growth and technology.

• Cost to serve expected to improve, targeting $100–$150 million in savings by FY26 versus FY24.