Origin Energy (ORG) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• APLNG revenue increased 1% quarter-over-quarter to $2,638 million, driven by higher LNG sales volumes.

• FYTD-25 APLNG revenue rose 12% year-over-year, supported by higher LNG volumes, export prices, and increased spot cargoes.

• Electricity sales volumes in Energy Markets increased 3% year-over-year, reflecting retail customer growth and higher demand.

• Octopus Energy added over 600,000 customer accounts, with Kraken platform contracts reaching 62 million.

• Production and sales volumes for APLNG declined 1% from the prior year, reflecting planned and unplanned maintenance.

Financial highlights

• APLNG's realised oil price for Sep-24 quarter was US$86/bbl, marginally down from US$87/bbl in Jun-24 and up from US$85/bbl in Sep-23.

• Average realised LNG price for Sep-24 quarter was US$11.95/mmbtu (up 2% q/q, up 3% y/y).

• Average domestic gas price was $9.59/GJ (up 3% q/q, up 18% y/y).

• Capex for the quarter was $504 million, up 219% from previous quarter and 248% year-over-year.

• Investments dropped to $8 million from $675 million in the previous quarter.

Outlook and guidance

• Construction is progressing on large-scale batteries at Eraring and Mortlake, and development continues on the Yanco Delta Wind Farm.

• Ongoing assessment of additional renewable development opportunities.

• Total depreciation and amortisation in FY25 expected to be ~$460m, down $60m from FY24, mainly due to Eraring asset life extension.

• Underlying EBITDA is expected to increase in line with guidance; income tax expense will rise accordingly.

• Total tax paid for FY25 will be significantly higher than FY24 due to higher instalment rates and lagged payments from higher FY24 earnings.