Origin Energy (ORG) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• APLNG revenue increased 1% quarter-over-quarter to $2,638 million, with LNG revenue up 4% and domestic revenue down 12% due to lower domestic volumes but higher short-term contract prices; year-over-year, revenue rose 12% driven by higher LNG volumes, export prices, and increased spot cargoes.

• Production and sales volumes for APLNG declined 1% from the prior year, reflecting planned and unplanned maintenance.

• Energy Markets electricity sales volumes increased 3–4% year-over-year, supported by retail customer growth and higher demand; business volumes were flat, and retail gas sales rose 4% while business gas declined 4%.

• Octopus Energy added over 600,000 customer accounts, with Kraken platform contracted accounts reaching 62 million.

• Significant investment in renewables and storage, with progress on large-scale battery projects and wind farm development.

Financial highlights

• APLNG's realised oil price for Sep-24 quarter was US$86/bbl, marginally down from US$87/bbl in Jun-24 and up from US$85/bbl in Sep-23.

• North Asian LNG market prices (JKM) averaged US$12/mmbtu, up from US$10/mmbtu in Jun-24 and US$11/mmbtu in Sep-23.

• Average AUD/USD FX rate was 0.67, up from 0.66 in both Jun-24 and Jun-23.

• APLNG commodity revenue for Sep-24 quarter was $2,236m (up 4% q/q, up 11% y/y); domestic gas revenue was $403m (down 12% q/q, up 20% y/y).

• Consolidated capex for Sep-24 quarter was $512m, including growth spend on Eraring and Mortlake Battery projects; investments dropped to $8m from $675m in the prior quarter.

Outlook and guidance

• Total depreciation and amortisation in FY25 expected to be ~$460m, down $60m from FY24, mainly due to Eraring asset life extension.

• Underlying EBITDA is expected to increase in line with guidance; income tax expense will rise accordingly.

• Total tax paid for FY25 will be significantly higher than FY24 due to higher instalment rates and lagged payments from higher FY24 earnings.

• Octopus Energy's ITDA share is expected to increase in FY25; interest income will be lower due to reduced cash balances post-Bulb acquisition.