Capital Power (CPX) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Record Q3 adjusted EBITDA reflected portfolio strength; contracted cash flows, re-contracting, uprates and merchant opportunities support growth without requiring M&A to meet 2030 targets.

• Embedded annual adjusted EBITDA upside is up to $1.25B above the 2026 base, illustrative and not guidance; capture is expected to require no new shares or project debt and limited growth capital.

Financial highlights

• Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $553M, up $76M YoY; AFFO was $306M, down $63M, and net income was $67M versus $153M.

• Q3 revenue and other income was $831M versus $1,213M; operating cash flow was $381M versus $404M YoY.

• Nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $1.308B, up $142M YoY; AFFO was $788M, down $34M. Revenue and other income was $2.776B, up $134M, and operating cash flow was $907M, up $150M.

Outlook and guidance

• Reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.565B–$1.765B and AFFO guidance of $890M–$1.010B.

• 2026 sustaining capex guidance rose to $350M–$370M from $290M–$330M, reflecting unplanned U.S. fleet work and an outage moved into Q4 2026.

• Insurance recoveries expected in 2026 and 2027, plus OEM concessions, are expected to meaningfully offset higher sustaining-capital cash costs.

• 2030 targets remain 8%–10% AFFO/share growth and 13%–15% total shareholder returns; most of the $1.25B upside is expected to be captured by or inclusive of 2030.