Carlsberg Group (CARL) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Reported total volumes grew 14.5% and revenue increased 17.4% year-over-year, primarily driven by the Britvic acquisition, while organic volumes declined 2.3% and organic revenue declined 1.5% due to weak consumer sentiment and the San Miguel loss.

• Premium beer, alcohol-free brews, and Beyond Beer categories delivered strong growth, with Britvic integration progressing as planned and synergy realization on track.

• Key markets such as China, India, and the U.K. showed solid starts despite soft organic development and macroeconomic headwinds.

• Maintained full-year earnings guidance, focusing on Britvic integration and continued investment in growth categories and markets.

• Soft drinks declined, but category diversification and premiumization supported overall performance.

Financial highlights

• Reported revenue reached DKK 20.1bn, up 17.4% year-over-year, with acquisitions contributing 18.4%; organic revenue declined 1.5%, flat year-on-year excluding San Miguel.

• Total volumes grew by 14.5%, with acquisitions contributing +16.8% and organic volume at -2.3%; excluding San Miguel, organic volume was -1.1%.

• Britvic contributed DKK 3.0bn in revenue and 4.7m hl in volume since January 16.

• Premium beer portfolio grew by 4% (ex-San Miguel), alcohol-free brews by 15%, and Beyond Beer by 6-15%, driven by brands like Garage and Wind Flower Snow Moon.

• Revenue per hectoliter increased 1% year-over-year, supported by price and brand mix.

Outlook and guidance

• Maintained 2025 guidance for organic operating profit growth of 1%-5%, including a 2-3% negative impact from the San Miguel loss.

• Britvic expected to contribute GBP 250 million in operating profit.

• Net finance cost expected at DKK 2.5 billion; effective tax rate around 23%; capex guidance at DKK 7-8 billion.

• Currency translation impact on operating profit expected at -DKK 200 million due to weaker Asian and Eastern European currencies.