Carlsberg Group (CARL) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Reported volume grew 14.5% and revenue 17.4% year-over-year, driven by acquisitions, especially Britvic; organic volume declined 2.3% and organic revenue 1.5% due to San Miguel loss and weak consumer sentiment.

• Premium beer, alcohol-free brews, and Beyond Beer categories delivered robust growth, while soft drinks declined; Britvic integration is progressing as planned, with synergy targets and integration costs confirmed.

• Growth categories and international brands showed positive momentum, with premium up 4% (ex-San Miguel), alcohol-free up 15%, and Beyond Beer up 15%.

• The company maintains its full-year earnings guidance, focusing on Britvic integration, growth categories, and efficiency improvements.

Financial highlights

• Reported revenue reached DKK 20.1bn, up 17.4% year-over-year; acquisitions contributed 18.4%, with Britvic adding DKK 3.0bn in revenue and 4.7m hl in volume since January 16.

• Organic revenue declined 1.5% year-over-year, but was flat excluding San Miguel; organic revenue/hl grew 1% due to price increases and positive mix.

• Premium beer volumes (ex-San Miguel) grew 4% organically; alcohol-free brews up 15%.

• Britvic organic Q1 volume declined 4.1% and revenue declined 5.3%, mainly due to France, Brazil, and International.

• Western Europe reported revenue up 31% (Britvic), organic revenue -2.9%; Asia organic revenue -0.4%; Central & Eastern Europe and India reported revenue up 12.6% (Britvic, Nepal), organic volume -1.7%, with India showing double-digit growth.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year EBIT guidance confirmed, with expected organic operating profit growth of 1%-5%, including a 2-3% negative impact from the San Miguel loss in the UK.

• Britvic expected to contribute GBP 250 million in operating profit; synergy targets of GBP 100m reaffirmed.

• Translation impact on operating profit now expected at DKK -200m; net finance costs around DKK 2.5bn; effective tax rate at 23%; capex at DKK 7-8bn.

• Cost of sales per hectoliter expected to be flat, with moderate increase in total cost base from higher commercial investments.