Origin Energy (ORG) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Energy Markets EBITDA reached AUD 1.404 billion, exceeding guidance, driven by strong trading gains, operational performance, and customer growth of 104,000 accounts.

• Statutory profit rose to AUD 1.481 billion, with underlying profit at AUD 1.49 billion, both up year-over-year.

• APLNG delivered AUD 797 million in dividends, with production at 682 PJ and LNG trading gains of AUD 441 million, all in line with guidance.

• Octopus Energy grew rapidly, with UK customers up 13% and non-UK accounts doubling, though EBITDA loss of AUD 88 million was within guidance due to growth investments and one-off impacts.

• Fully franked final dividend of AUD 0.30 per share declared, totaling AUD 0.60 for the year, up from AUD 0.55 in FY24.

Financial highlights

• Underlying EBITDA was AUD 3.41 billion, down from AUD 3.528 billion in the prior year.

• Net debt to EBITDA at 1.9x, with net debt rising to AUD 4.654 billion due to growth investments.

• Free cash flow impacted by major growth capex, with AUD 927 million spent on batteries and AUD 258 million on generation sustain.

• Dividend payout ratio reached 86%, with a 5.1% yield before franking and dividends up 21% year-over-year.

• 24-month ROCE at 14.6%; Energy Markets ROCE 11.3%, Integrated Gas ROCE 23.5%.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2026 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance: AUD 1.4–1.7 billion; cost to serve savings targeted at AUD 100–150 million by FY26 vs FY24.

• LNG Trading EBITDA guidance: AUD 100–150 million; Octopus Energy EBITDA: AUD 0–150 million.

• CapEx guidance (excluding acquisitions): AUD 800 million–1.1 billion, mainly for battery projects.

• APLNG production guidance: 635–680 PJ; all-in costs: AUD 2.9–3.2 billion.

• Dividend policy aims for stability, with potential for modest growth.