Origin Energy (ORG) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• APLNG revenue declined 12% quarter-over-quarter and 21% year-over-year, driven by lower LNG and domestic sales volumes and prices, as well as the completion of a price review with Sinopec effective January 2025.

• Production volumes for APLNG fell 3% from the previous quarter and 2% year-over-year, reflecting natural field decline and fewer production days, partially offset by new wells and optimisation.

• Electricity sales volumes increased 4% year-over-year, driven by business demand, especially data centres.

• Gas sales volumes declined 32% year-over-year, mainly from lower trading and power generation demand.

• Octopus Energy added 700,000 customer accounts but expects lower FY26 EBITDA due to UK regulatory changes and adverse weather.

Financial highlights

• Integrated Gas production: 164.5 PJ, down 3% sequentially and 2% year-over-year.

• Integrated Gas revenue: $1,855 million, down 12% sequentially and 20% year-over-year.

• APLNG's realised oil price for the quarter was US$73/bbl, up sequentially but down from US$80/bbl year-over-year.

• North Asian LNG market prices averaged US$10.4/mmbtu, down from US$11.2/mmbtu in the prior quarter and US$14.7/mmbtu year-over-year.

• Domestic gas revenue dropped 41% quarter-over-quarter and 43% year-over-year, with average realised prices down 28% and 32% respectively.

Outlook and guidance

• Octopus Energy FY26 EBITDA guidance was revised to -$70 million to +$30 million, down from $0-150 million, due to the wind-down of the UK ECO scheme, increased gas capacity charges, and adverse weather.

• Origin expects to move further into its 2.0x–3.0x Adjusted Net Debt/EBITDA target range over FY26/27, with significant battery project capex and Kraken investment planned.

• FY27 is expected to see higher oil prices realised in APLNG's long-term LNG contracts due to contract lags.

• 75–85% of anticipated Eraring coal consumption for FY27 is contracted or hedged.

• Global commodity volatility expected to impact results in FY27 due to lagged contract effects.