Origin Energy (ORG) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• APLNG revenue and production declined 12% quarter-over-quarter and 21% year-over-year, driven by lower LNG and domestic sales volumes and prices, natural field decline, and fewer production days, partially offset by new wells and optimisation.

• Energy Markets saw electricity spot prices rise sequentially but fall year-over-year, with a 4% increase in electricity sales year-over-year driven by business demand, especially from data centres, while gas prices and volumes declined due to increased renewables and battery storage.

• Octopus Energy added 700,000 customer accounts but expects lower FY26 EBITDA due to UK regulatory changes, higher gas capacity charges, and adverse weather.

• APLNG completed refinancing of its commercial bank debt tranche, deferring amortisation to FY31–FY33 and reducing the interest margin by 0.6% p.a., improving future cash flow flexibility.

• Origin acquired 1st Energy and made incremental investments in Golden Beach during the quarter.

Financial highlights

• APLNG's realised oil price for the quarter was US$73/bbl, up sequentially but down from US$80/bbl year-over-year.

• North Asian LNG market prices averaged US$10.4/mmbtu, down from US$11.2/mmbtu in the prior quarter and US$14.7/mmbtu year-over-year.

• APLNG revenue was $1,855 million, down 12% sequentially and 20% year-over-year; average realised LNG price was US$9.51/mmbtu, down 11% year-over-year.

• Energy Markets electricity sales were 9.4 TWh, up 10% sequentially and 4% year-over-year; natural gas sales were 27.2 PJ, down 32% sequentially and year-over-year.

• Consolidated capex was $254 million, down 13% sequentially and 14% year-over-year; investments were $42 million, up 122% sequentially.

Outlook and guidance

• Octopus Energy FY26 EBITDA guidance was revised to -$70 million to +$30 million, down from $0-150 million, due to the wind-down of the UK ECO scheme, increased gas capacity charges, and adverse weather.

• Origin expects to move further into its 2.0x–3.0x Adjusted Net Debt/EBITDA target range over FY26/27, with significant battery project capex and Kraken investment planned.

• FY27 is expected to see higher oil prices realised in APLNG's long-term LNG contracts due to contract lags.

• 75–85% of anticipated Eraring coal consumption for FY27 is contracted or hedged; FY27 coal costs expected to be similar to FY26.

• Benefits from battery projects are expected in Energy Markets, but lower wholesale electricity prices may offset gains in FY27.