Carlsberg Group (CARL) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Reported revenue grew 17.8% year-over-year to DKK 24.1 billion, mainly driven by the Britvic acquisition and Gorkha Brewery consolidation, while organic revenue declined 1.4% due to the loss of San Miguel, soft consumer sentiment, and the Ukraine war.

• Reported volume growth was 16.2%, with organic volume down 3.0%; excluding San Miguel, organic volume was down 1.7%.

• Premium and international brands, including Tuborg and 1664, posted strong growth, offsetting declines in mainstream beer.

• Britvic integration is progressing well, with expected cost synergies raised to GBP 110 million.

• Full-year earnings guidance and 2025 organic operating profit growth of 3-5% are maintained, with cost actions supporting continued investment.

Financial highlights

• Q3 reported revenue reached DKK 24,139 million, up 17.8% year-over-year; organic revenue per hectoliter increased 2% across all regions, driven by price increases and product mix.

• Britvic contributed 21.5% to reported revenue growth.

• Western Europe reported revenue up 37.2%, Asia down 5.7%, CEEI up 3.1%.

• Total beverage volumes rose 16.2% to 40.6m hl, with organic volumes down 3.0%.

• Premium and soft drinks categories showed organic growth, while alcohol-free brews and Beyond Beer declined.

Outlook and guidance

• Organic operating profit growth expected at 3-5% for 2025, including a 2-3 percentage point negative impact from San Miguel.

• Britvic is expected to contribute GBP 250 million in operating profit.

• Currency impact on operating profit estimated at DKK -200 million; net financial expenses (ex-FX) at DKK 2.4 billion; tax rate at 23%; CapEx outlook around DKK 7 billion.